Maternal mortality and COVID-19: A nationwide ecological analysis from Ecuador.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, distinct population subsets, including pregnant women, have been differentially affected. While over 90% of COVID-19-infected pregnant women experience a benign course, a subset demonstrates marked clinical exacerbation. Symptomatic pregnant individuals, in particular, present a heightened risk of severe disease in comparison to their non-pregnant counterparts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in pregnant women, assess related maternal mortalities, ascertain the case fatality rate, and delineate associated risk factors. DESIGN: This is a comprehensive population-based ecological study. METHODOLOGY: A population-based study was conducted to investigate the epidemiological patterns of COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality in pregnant women in Ecuador from 27 February 2020 to 14 May 2021. RESULTS: A total of 3274 positive COVID-19 cases were identified among pregnant women, with 22 official fatalities, yielding a case fatality rate of 0.67%. The majority of cases were of Mestizo ethnicity (92.66%); however, the highest case fatality rate was noted among indigenous pregnant women (case fatality rate = 1.25%), those aged between 40 and 44 years (case fatality rate = 2.68%), and those with a history of comorbidities (2.08%). Pregnant women residing at lower altitudes (<2500 m) exhibited a higher incidence rate (0.20/100,000) compared to those at higher altitudes (>2500 m), which stood at 0.17/100,000. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted pregnant women in Ecuador during the first 14 months, particularly those with comorbidities, older age, and of indigenous ethnicity. These factors have heightened their vulnerability and susceptibility to severe COVID-19 infection and subsequent mortality. This underscores the urgency for comprehensive protective measures, including prioritization for vaccination. Further studies are needed to inform tailored prevention strategies and therapeutic interventions for these high-risk groups.

A proposed analytical approach to estimate excess daily mortality rates in Ecuador.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has proved deadly all over the globe; however, one of the most lethal outbreaks occurred in Ecuador. Aims: This study aims to highlight the pandemic's impact on the most affected countries worldwide in terms of excess deaths per capita and per day. Methods: An ecological study of all-cause mortality recorded in Ecuador was performed. To calculate the excess deaths relative to the historical average for the same dates in 2017, 2018, and 2019, we developed a bootstrap method based on the central tendency measure of mean. A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-cause deaths and COVID-19 deaths. A bootstrapping technique was used to emulate the sampling distribution of our expected deaths estimator µâŒ¢deaths by simulating the data generation and model fitting processes daily since the first confirmed case. Results: In Ecuador, during 2020, 115,070 deaths were reported and 42,453 were cataloged as excess mortality when compared to 2017-2019 period. Ecuador is the country with the highest recorded excess mortality in the world within the shortest timespan. In one single day, Ecuador recorded 1,120 deaths (6/100,000), which represents an additional 408% of the expected fatalities. Conclusion: Adjusting for population size and time, the hardest-hit country due to the COVID-19 pandemic was Ecuador. The mortality excess rate shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread rapidly in Ecuador, especially in the coastal region. Our results and the proposed new methodology could help to address the real situation of the number of deaths during the initial phase of pandemics.

The Pharmaceutical Market for Biological Products in Latin America: A Comprehensive Analysis of Regional Sales Data.

The global market for biologics and biosimilar pharmaceutical products is experiencing rapid expansion, primarily driven by the continuous discovery of new molecules. However, information regarding Latin America's biological market remains limited.

Epidemiological characterization of ischemic heart disease at different altitudes: A nationwide population-based analysis from 2011 to 2021 in Ecuador.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases, including ischemic heart disease, are the leading cause of premature death and disability worldwide. While traditional risk factors such as smoking, obesity, and diabetes have been thoroughly investigated, non-traditional risk factors like high-altitude exposure remain underexplored. This study aims to examine the incidence and mortality rates of ischemic heart disease over the past decade in Ecuador, a country with a diverse altitude profile spanning from 0 to 4,300 meters. METHODS: We conducted a geographic distribution analysis of ischemic heart disease in Ecuador, utilizing hospital discharge and mortality data from the National Institute of Census and Statistics for the years 2011-2021. Altitude exposure was categorized according to two distinct classifications: the traditional division into low (< 2,500 m) and high (> 2,500 m) altitudes, as well as the classification proposed by the International Society of Mountain Medicine, which delineates low (< 1,500 m), moderate (1,500-2,500 m), high (2,500-3,500 m), and very high (3,500-5,800 m) altitudes. FINDINGS: From 2011-2021, we analyzed 49,765 IHD-related hospital admissions and 62,620 deaths. Men had an age-adjusted incidence rate of 55.08/100,000 and a mortality rate of 47.2/100,000, compared to 20.77/100,000 and 34.8/100,000 in women. Incidence and mortality surged in 2020 by 83% in men and 75% in women. Altitudinal stratification revealed higher IHD rates at lower altitudes (<2500 m), averaging 61.65 and 121.8 per 100,000 for incidence and mortality, which declined to 25.9 and 38.5 at elevations >2500 m. Men had more pronounced rates across altitudes, exhibiting 138.7% and 150.0% higher incidence at low and high altitudes respectively, and mortality rates increased by 48.3% at low altitudes and 23.2% at high altitudes relative to women. CONCLUSION: Ecuador bears a significant burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD), with men being more affected than women in terms of incidence. However, women have a higher percentage of mortality post-hospital admission. Regarding elevation, our analysis, using two different altitude cutoff points, reveals higher mortality rates in low-altitude regions compared to high-altitude areas, suggesting a potential protective effect of high elevation on IHD risk. Nevertheless, a definitive dose-response relationship between high altitude and reduced IHD risk could not be conclusively established.

A nationwide epidemiological and geodemographic analysis of lymphatic filariasis in Ecuador: a neglected and often forgotten disease in Ecuador.

Introduction: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes and affecting the lymphatic system. The aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiological and sociodemographic characteristics of patients with LF during the last 11 years of available data in Ecuador. Methods: A 11-year nationwide analysis of hospital admission and in-hospital mortality based on the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) data was conducted in Ecuador from 2011 to 2021. The International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) code for filariasis (ICD: B74) was used to retrieve information on severe LF as a proxy for incidence among 221 Ecuadorian cities. Results: A total of 26 hospital admissions and 3 deaths due to LF were registered. The highest mortality rate was found in populations over 80 years. Men accounted for 62.5% (n = 17) of total number of cases with an average incidence rate of 1.7 cases per/1,000,000, while females accounted for 34.6% (n = 9), representing 1 case per/1,000,000 woman. Cities located at lower altitude (459/1,000,000) reported higher incidence rates than those located at higher altitudes (7.4/1,000,000). Conclusion: This is the first study on LF in Ecuador. Although, Ecuador is not considered endemic for LF, we found evidence of the presence of this disease in recent years. The implementation and improvement of an adequate integrated epidemiological surveillance system will allow early identification of cases and therefore their respective treatment.

Poor regulation, desperation, and misinformation, a countrywide analysis of self-medication and prescription patterns in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early phase of the pandemic led to an unprecedented global health crisis. Various factors have influenced self-medication practices among the general population and unsubstantiated prescribing practices among healthcare professionals. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe trends in the purchase and sale of medicines during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2022) in Ecuador, by comparing them with pre-pandemic periods. METHODS: In this study, a cross-sectional design was employed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of 28 pharmacological groups, categorized according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification (ATC). Utilizing an integrated drug consumption database, the study examined physician prescribing data, medicine usage, and spending levels in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis involved computing absolute differences in monthly resolution, calculating excessive expenditure in comparison to previous yearly averages, and using Defined Daily Dose (DDD) methodology for internationally comparable results. Furthermore, a correlation analysis was performed to investigate potential associations between prescribed and consumed medicines and the number of new cases and deaths. RESULTS: In Ecuador, the average yearly expenditure among these groups prior to the pandemic (2017-2019) amounted to $150,646,206 USD, whereas during 2020 and 2021, the same groups represented a total expenditure of $228,327,210, reflecting a significant increase. The excess expenditure during this period reached 51.4%, equivalent to $77,681,004 USD. Notably, 13% of this expenditure consisted of Over the Counter (OTC) Medicines. The study also identified a remarkable surge in sales of ivermectin, which increased by 2,057%, and hydroxychloroquine, which increased by 171%, as measured by DDD. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the substantial consumption of medicines by the population in Ecuador during the pandemic. It is concerning that many medications were sold without proven therapeutic indications, indicating that misinformation and desperation may have led to improper prescribing by physicians and patients resorting to ineffective drugs. Moreover, since the sale of these therapeutic drugs requires a prescription, poor regulation, and a lack of control within pharmacies likely contributed to such practices.

An 11-year epidemiological analysis of schistosomiasis in Ecuador: Investigating a non-endemic, neglected, and challenging-to-identify parasitic disease.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected disease caused by parasites of the genus Schistosoma and transmitted by snails of the genus Biomphalaria. At least five species have the potential to infect humans living in or visiting tropical areas worldwide. In Latin America, Schistosoma mansoni is particularly common; however, it has not been reported in Ecuador. In this study, we assess the available official data on schistosomiasis in Ecuador to describe the prevalence of this neglected disease. We conducted a nationwide study to determine the demographic and spatial distribution patterns of schistosomiasis infection in Ecuador, using hospital discharge official data as a proxy for infection incidence from 2011 to 2021. We calculated crude and age-sex-adjusted morbidity and hospital admission rates by region, province, canton, and elevation. In the last decade of available data, schistosomiasis accounted for at least 551 hospital admissions in Ecuador. Women represented 53.7% (n = 296) of cases, equivalent to 3.2 cases per 1,000,000 inhabits. The highest number of cases (61.2%, n = 337) was found in the Coastal region. However, the highest incidence rates were observed in the Amazon region's provinces of Pastaza (173.44 cases/1,000,000).

Severe Chagas disease in Ecuador: a countrywide geodemographic epidemiological analysis from 2011 to 2021.

Background: Chagas disease is a neglected and often forgotten tropical disease caused by the Trypanosoma cruzi. This parasite can be transmitted through the direct contact of human skin with feces and urine of the triatomine insect. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), an estimated 6-7 million people are infected worldwide, killing at least 14,000 every year. The disease has been reported in 20 of the 24 provinces of Ecuador, with El Oro, Guayas, and Loja being the most affected. Methodology: We analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of severe Chagas disease in Ecuador on a nationwide, population-based level. Hospitalization cases and deaths were also examined based on altitude, including low (< 2,500 m) and high (> 2,500 m) altitudes, according to the International Society. Data was retrieved from the National Institute of Statistics and Census hospital admissions and in-hospital mortality databases from 2011 to 2021. Results: A total of 118 patients have been hospitalized in Ecuador since 2011 due to Chagas disease. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 69.4% (N = 82). Men have a higher incidence rate (4.8/1,000,000) than women, although women have a significantly higher mortality rate than men (6.9/1,000,000). Conclusion: Chagas disease is a severe parasitic condition that primarily affects rural and poorer areas of Ecuador. Men are more likely to be infected due to differences in work and sociocultural activities. Using average elevation data, we conducted a geodemographic analysis to assess incidence rates by altitude. Our findings indicate that the disease is more common at low and moderate altitudes, but recent increases in cases at higher altitudes suggest that environmental changes, such as global warming, could be driving the proliferation of disease-carrying vectors in previously unaffected areas.

The deadly impact of COVID-19 among children from Latin America: The case of Ecuador.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic remains a critical global health concern, with older adults being the most vulnerable group. Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize that COVID-19 has caused numerous deaths in children worldwide. Emerging evidence indicates that infants and breastfeeding children, particularly those aged below one year, face a greater risk of hospitalization and mortality than older children with COVID-19. Objective: This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 among children during the early phase of the pandemic in Ecuador. Methods: We conducted a country-wide population-based analysis of the epidemiology of COVID-19, using incidence and mortality data reported from Ecuador between February 15, 2020 and May 14 2021. Measurements of frequency, central tendency, dispersion, and absolute differences were calculated for all categorical and continuous variables. Results: At least 34,001 cases (23,587 confirmed cases, 5,315 probable and 5,099 suspected) and 258 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported among children in Ecuador during the first 16 months of the pandemic. The overall incidence rate was 612 cases per 100,000 children, the mortality rate was 3 per 100,000, while the case fatality rate was 0.76%. The highest risk group for infection was children and adolescents between 15 and 19 years of age; however, the highest mortality rate occurred in children under one year of age. The largest provinces, such as Pichincha, Guavas and Manabí, were the ones that reported the highest number of cases, 27%, 12.1% and 10.8%, respectively. Conclusions: This study is the first to report on COVID-19 epidemics among children in Ecuador. Our findings reveal that younger children have a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but a higher risk of mortality compared to older children and adolescents. Additionally, we observed significant disparities in infection rates and outcomes among children living in rural areas, those with comorbidities, and those from indigenous ethnic groups.

Comparative analysis of long-term self-reported COVID-19 symptoms among pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: The negative effects of COVID-19 infections during pregnancy have been amply described, however, the persistent sequels of this infection have not been explored so far. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe persisting symptoms after COVID-19 infection in pregnant and non-pregnant women in Ecuador. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis based on an online, self-reporting questionnaire was conducted in Ecuador from April to July 2022. Participants were invited by social media, radio, and TV to voluntarily participate in our study. A total of 457 surveys were included in this study. We compared risk factor variables and long-term persisting symptoms of pregnant and non-pregnant women in Ecuador. RESULTS: Overall, 247 (54.1 %) responders claimed to have long-term symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most of these symptoms were reported by non-pregnant women (94.0 %). The most common Long-COVID symptoms in pregnant women were fatigue (10.6 %), hair loss (9.6 %), and difficulty concentrating (6.2 %). We found that pregnant women who smoked had a higher risk of suffering fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: The most frequent Long-COVID symptoms in pregnant women were fatigue, hair loss, and difficulty concentrating. Apparently, the patterns of presentation of long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women do not differ significantly from reports available from studies in the general population.

A Systematic Review and Quality Evaluation of Studies on Long-Term Sequelae of COVID-19.

COVID-19 made its debut as a pandemic in 2020; since then, more than 607 million cases and at least 6.5 million deaths have been reported worldwide. While the burden of disease has been described, the long-term effects or chronic sequelae are still being clarified. The aim of this study was to present an overview of the information available on the sequelae of COVID-19 in people who have suffered from the infection. A systematic review was carried out in which cohort studies, case series, and clinical case reports were included, and the PubMed, Scielo, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases were extracted. Information was published from 2020 to 1 June 2022, and we included 26 manuscripts: 9 for pulmonary, 6 for cardiac, 2 for renal, 8 for neurological and psychiatric, and 6 for cutaneous sequelae. Studies showed that the most common sequelae were those linked to the lungs, followed by skin, cutaneous, and psychiatric alterations. Women reported a higher incidence of the sequelae, as well as those with comorbidities and more severe COVID-19 history. The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused death and disease since its appearance, but it has also sickened millions of people around the globe who potentially suffer from serious illnesses that will continue to add to the list of health problems, and further burden healthcare systems around the world.

Long COVID at Different Altitudes: A Countrywide Epidemiological Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several reports from around the world have reported that some patients who have recovered from COVID-19 have experienced a range of persistent or new clinical symptoms after a SARS-CoV-2 infection. These symptoms can last from weeks to months, impacting everyday functioning to a significant number of patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis based on an online, self-reporting questionnaire was conducted in Ecuador from April to July 2022. Participants were invited by social media, radio, and TV to voluntarily participate in our study. A total of 2103 surveys were included in this study. We compared socio-demographic variables and long-term persisting symptoms at low (<2500 m) and high altitude (>2500 m). RESULTS: Overall, 1100 (52.3%) responders claimed to have Long-COVID symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most of these were reported by women (64.0%); the most affected group was young adults between 21 to 40 years (68.5%), and most long-haulers were mestizos (91.6%). We found that high altitude residents were more likely to report persisting symptoms (71.7%) versus those living at lower altitudes (29.3%). The most common symptoms were fatigue or tiredness (8.4%), hair loss (5.1%) and difficulty concentrating (5.0%). The highest proportion of symptoms was observed in the group that received less than 2 doses. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study describing post-COVID symptoms' persistence in low and high-altitude residents. Our findings demonstrate that women, especially those aging between 21-40, are more likely to describe Long-COVID. We also found that living at a high altitude was associated with higher reports of mood changes, tachycardia, decreased libido, insomnia, and palpitations compared to lowlanders. Finally, we found a greater risk to report Long-COVID symptoms among women, those with previous comorbidities and those who had a severer acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.

A comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load across different altitudes.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread throughout the world, including areas located at high or very high altitudes. There is a debate about the role of high altitude hypoxia on viral transmission, incidence, and COVID-19 related mortality. This is the first comparison of SARS-CoV-2 viral load across elevations ranging from 0 to 4300 m. To describe the SARS-CoV-2 viral load across samples coming from 62 cities located at low, moderate, high, and very high altitudes in Ecuador. An observational analysis of viral loads among nasopharyngeal swap samples coming from a cohort of 4929 patients with a RT-qPCR test positive for SARS-CoV-2. The relationship between high and low altitude only considering our sample of 4929 persons is equal in both cases and not significative (p-value 0.19). In the case of low altitude, adding the sex variable to the analysis, it was possible to find a significative difference between men and women (p-value < 0.05). Considering initially sex and then altitude, it was possible to find a significative difference between high and low altitude for men (p-value 0.05). There is not enough evidence to state that viral load is affected directly by altitude range but adding a new variable as sex in the analysis shows that the presence of new variables influences the relationship of altitude range and viral load. There is no evidence that viral loads (Ct and copies/ml) differ at low or high altitude. Using sex as a co-factor, we found that men have higher viral loads than women at low and moderate altitude locations, while living at high altitude, no differences were found. When Ct values were aggregated by low, moderate, and high viral load, we found no significant differences when sex was excluded from the analysis. We conclude that viral load is not directly affected by altitude, but COVID-19 incidence and mortality are rather affected by socio-demographic and idiosyncratic dynamics.

A Comparative Analysis of a Self-Reported Adverse Events Analysis after Receiving One of the Available SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Schemes in Ecuador.

The COVID-19 pandemic has put a lot of pressure on health systems worldwide. Mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has reduced morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite their safety profiles, vaccines, as with any other medical product, can cause adverse events. Yet, in countries with poor epidemiological surveillance and monitoring systems, reporting vaccine-related adverse events is a challenge. The objective of this study was to describe self-reported vaccine adverse events after receiving one of the available COVID-19 vaccine schemes in Ecuador. A cross-sectional analysis based on an online, self-reported, 32-item questionnaire was conducted in Ecuador from 1 April to 15 July 2021. Participants were invited by social media, radio, and TV to voluntarily participate in our study. A total of 6654 participants were included in this study. Furthermore, 38.2% of the participants reported having at least one comorbidity. Patients received AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Sinovac vaccines, and these were distributed 38.4%, 31.1%, and 30.5%, respectively. Overall, pain or swelling at the injection site 17.2% (n = 4500) and headache 13.3% (n = 3502) were the most reported adverse events. Women addressed events supposedly attributable to vaccination or immunization [ESAVIs] (66.7%), more often than men (33.2%). After receiving the first dose of any available COVID-19 vaccine, a total of 19,501 self-reported ESAVIs were informed (87.0% were mild, 11.5% moderate, and 1.5% severe). In terms of the vaccine type and brand, the most reactogenic vaccine was AstraZeneca with 57.8%, followed by Pfizer (24.9%) and Sinovac (17.3%). After the second dose, 6776 self-reported ESAVIs were reported (87.1% mild, 10.9% moderate, and 2.1% severe). AstraZeneca vaccine users reported a higher proportion of ESAVIs (72.2%) in comparison to Pfizer/BioNTech (15.9%) and Sinovac Vaccine (11.9%). Swelling at the injection site, headache, muscle pain, and fatigue were the most common ESAVIs for the first as well as second doses. In conclusion, most ESAVIs were mild. AstraZeneca users were more likely to report adverse events. Participants without a history of COVID-19 infection, as well as those who received the first dose, were more prone to report ESAVIs.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Analysis at Low and High Altitude: A Case Study from Ecuador.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread throughout the world, including remote areas such as those located at high altitudes. There is a debate about the role of hypobaric hypoxia on viral transmission and COVID-19 incidence. A descriptive cross-sectional analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral load among patients living at low (230 m) and high altitude (3800 m) in Ecuador was completed. Within these two communities, the total number of infected people at the time of the study was 108 cases (40.3%). The COVID-19 incidence proportion at low altitude was 64% while at high altitude was 30.3%. The mean viral load from those patients who tested positive was 3,499,184 copies/mL (SD = 23,931,479 copies/mL). At low altitude (Limoncocha), the average viral load was 140,223.8 copies/mL (SD = 990,840.9 copies/mL), while for the high altitude group (Oyacachi), the mean viral load was 6,394,789 copies/mL (SD = 32,493,469 copies/mL). We found no statistically significant differences when both results were compared (p = 0.056). We found no significant differences across people living at low or high altitude; however, men and younger populations had higher viral load than women older populations, respectively.

Waterborne diseases and ethnic-related disparities: A 10 years nationwide mortality and burden of disease analysis from Ecuador.

Background: Despite worldwide progress in terms of clean water supply, sanitation, and hygiene knowledge, some middle and most of low-income countries are still experiencing many diseases transmitted using unsafe water and the lack of sanitation. Methods: To understand the impact of all waterborne diseases (WBD) registered in Ecuador. We performed a population-based analysis of all cases and deaths due to WBD in Ecuador based on the national public databases of hospital discharges as a proxy of incidence, in-hospital mortality, and countrywide general mortality rates from 2011 to 2020. Results: In Ecuador, mestizos (mixed European and Indigenous American ancestry) had the greatest morbidity rate (141/100,000), followed by indigenous (63/100,000) and self-determined white patients (21/100,000). However, in terms of mortality, indigenous population have the greatest risk and rates, having a 790% additional mortality rate (2.6/100,000) than the reference group (self-determined white populations) at 0.29/100,000. The burden of disease analysis demonstrated that indigenous had the highest burden of disease caused by WBD with 964 YLL per every 100,000 people while mestizos have 360 YYL per 100,000 and self-determined white Ecuadorians have 109 YYL per 100,000. Conclusions: In Ecuador, waterborne diseases (WBD) are still a major public health problem. We found that indigenous population had higher probability of getting sick and die due to WBD than the rest of the ethnic groups in Ecuador. We also found that younger children and the elderly are more likely to be admitted to the hospital due to a WBD. These epidemiological trends are probably associated with the lower life expectancy found among Indigenous than among the rest of the ethnic groups, who die at least, 39 years earlier than the self-determined white populations, 28 years earlier than Afro-Ecuadorians and 12 years earlier than the mestizos.

Analysis of Excess Mortality Data at Different Altitudes During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Ecuador.

Ortiz-Prado, Esteban, Raul Patricio Fernandez Naranjo, Eduardo Vasconez, Katherine Simbaña-Rivera, Trigomar Correa-Sancho, Alex Lister, Manuel Calvopiña, and Ginés Viscor. Analysis of excess mortality data at different altitudes during the COVID-19 outbreak in Ecuador. High Alt Med Biol. 22:406-416, 2021. Background: It has been speculated that living at high altitude confers some risk reduction in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, reduced transmissibility, and arguable lower COVID-19-related mortality. Objective: We aim to determine the number of excess deaths reported in Ecuador during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to different altitude categories among 221 cantons in Ecuador, ranging from sea level to 4,300 m above. Methods: A descriptive ecological country-wide analysis of the excess mortality in Ecuador was performed since March 1, 2020, to March 1, 2021. Every canton was categorized as lower (for altitudes 2,500 m or less) or higher (for altitudes >2,500 m) in a first broad classification, as well as in two different classifications: The one proposed by Imray et al. in 2011 (low altitude <1,500 m, moderate altitude 1,500-2,500 m, high altitude 2,500-3,500 m, or very high altitude 3,500-5,500 m) and the one proposed by Bärtsch et al. in 2008 (near sea level 0-500 m, low altitude 500-2,000 m, moderate altitude 2,000-3,000 m, high altitude 3,000-5,500 m, and extreme altitude 5,500 m). A Poisson fitting analysis was used to identify trends on officially recorded all-caused deaths and those attributed to COVID-19. Results: In Ecuador, at least 120,573 deaths were recorded during the first year of the pandemic, from which 42,453 were catalogued as excessive when compared with the past 3 years of averages (2017-2019). The mortality rate at the lower altitude was 301/100,000 people, in comparison to 242/100,000 inhabitants in elevated cantons. Considering the four elevation categories, the highest excess deaths came from towns located at low altitude (324/100,000), in contrast to the moderate altitude (171/100,000), high-altitude (249/100,000), and very high-altitude (153/100,000) groups. Conclusions: This is the first report on COVID-19 excess mortality in a high-altitude range from 0 to 4,300 m above sea level. We found that absolute COVID-19-related excess mortality is lower both in time and in proportion in the cantons located at high and very high altitude when compared with those cantons located at low altitude.

Exceptional Prices of Medical and Other Supplies during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ecuador.

Shortages of essential supplies used to prevent, diagnose, and treat COVID-19 have been a global concern, and price speculation and hikes may have negatively influenced access. This study identifies variability in prices of products acquired through government-driven contracts in Ecuador during the early pandemic response, when the highest mortality rates were registered in a single day. Data were obtained from the National Public Procurement Service (SERCOP) database between March 1 and July 31, 2020. A statistical descriptive analysis was conducted to extract relevant measures for commonly purchased products, medical devices, pharmaceutical drugs, and other goods. Among the most frequently purchased products, the greatest amounts were spent on face masks (US$4.5 million), acetaminophen (US$2.2 million), and reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay kits (US$1.8 million). Prices varied greatly, depending on each individual contract and on the number of units purchased; some were exceptionally higher than their market value. Compared with 2019, the mean price of medical examination gloves increased up to 1,307%, acetaminophen 500 mg pills, up to 796%, and oxygen flasks, 30.8%. In a context of budgetary constraints that actually required an effective use of available funds, speculative price hikes may have limited patient access to health care and the protection of the general population and health care workers. COVID-19 vaccine allocations to privileged individuals have also been widely reported. Price caps and other forms of regulation, as well as greater scrutiny and transparency of government-driven purchases, and investment in local production, are warranted in Ecuador for improved infectious disease prevention.

Statistical data driven approach of COVID-19 in Ecuador: R 0 and R t estimation via new method.

The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic. During 2009, H1N1 Influenza pandemic, statistical and mathematical methods were used to track how the virus spreads around countries. Most of these models that were developed at the beginning of the XXI century are based on the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model developed almost a hundred years ago. The evolution of this model allows us to forecast and compute basic and effective reproduction numbers (R t and R 0 ), measures that quantify the epidemic potential of a pathogen and estimates different scenarios. In this study, we present a traditional estimation technique for R 0 with statistical distributions by best fitting and a Bayesian approach based on continuous feed of prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions and computing real time R t . We use data from COVID-19 officially reported cases in Ecuador since the first confirmed case on February 29th. Because of the lack of data, in the case of R 0 we compare two methods for the estimation of these parameters below exponential growth and maximum likelihood estimation. We do not make any assumption about the evolution of cases due to limited information and we use previous methods to compare scenarios about R 0 and in the case of R t we used Bayesian inference to model uncertainty in contagious proposing a new modification to the well-known model of Bettencourt and Ribeiro based on a time window of m days to improve estimations. Ecuadorian R 0 with exponential growth criteria was 3.45 and with the maximum likelihood estimation method was 2.93. The results show that Guayas, Pichincha and Manabí were the provinces with the highest number of cases due to COVID-19. Some reasons explain the increased transmissibility in these localities: massive events, population density, cities dispersion patterns, and the delayed time of public health actions to contain pandemic. In conclusion, this is a novel approach that allow us to measure infection dynamics and outbreak distribution when not enough detailed data is available. The use of this model can be used to predict pandemic distribution and to implement data-based effective measures.

Epidemiological, socio-demographic and clinical features of the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ecuador.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread rapidly around the globe. Nevertheless, there is limited information describing the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in Latin America. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 9,468 confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in Ecuador. We calculated overall incidence, mortality, case fatality rates, disability adjusted life years, attack and crude mortality rates, as well as relative risk and relative odds of death, adjusted for age, sex and presence of comorbidities. A total of 9,468 positive COVID-19 cases and 474 deaths were included in the analysis. Men accounted for 55.4% (n = 5, 247) of cases and women for 44.6% (n = 4, 221). We found the presence of comorbidities, being male and older than 65 years were important determinants of mortality. Coastal regions were most affected by COVID-19, with higher mortality rates than the highlands. Fatigue was reported in 53.2% of the patients, followed by headache (43%), dry cough (41.7%), ageusia (37.1%) and anosmia (36.1%). We present an analysis of the burden of COVID-19 in Ecuador. Our findings show that men are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, and risk increases with age and the presence of comorbidities. We also found that blue-collar workers and the unemployed are at greater risk of dying. These early observations offer clinical insights for the medical community to help improve patient care and for public health officials to strengthen Ecuador's response to the outbreak.